For those of you who were around back in 2019, you will see that early on there is a lot of parallel between now and 2019. 2019 was when Bitcoin bounced back from its low point of around 3000 dollars and made a run. Back in 2019, Bitcoin actually went up to 13K before going down to the dreaded 6K level. And then back in early 2020, we wicked down to 3500 dollars again in the COVID crash. I actually sold quite a bit in 2019 when Bitcoin came back above 10K and rebought back at around 7K. In terms of swing trading, these type of “runs” right before the halving is relatively easy (of course, not that easy though) to trade if you work backward.
\- 2024/2025 will be a bull cycle with the economy most likely recovering and with the Bitcoin halving in place.
\- So we will see a big Bitcoin run in 2024/25 as well as altseason near the end of the run.
\- Bitcoin is volatile so it is impossible to see a run in 2023, run in 2024, and an ending run in 2025.
\- Right now, it seems like Bitcoin is moving back up (similar to 2019).
\- Conclusion: If Bitcoin rebounds back a lot this year, you can sell the local top and buy back at a cheaper price.
So what is a suitable spot to sell? Well, I would argue that right now is too low to completely sell, but we can look at some range near the previous ATH level. Spots like 42K have been critical in the past 2020/2021 season as sometimes being support and sometimes being resistance. 50K is where FOMO will begin and seems like an excellent time to take profit. It doesn’t mean that we will get to that level as we might just peak out at around 30K this year. The point being that the more we run in 2023, it will present an EXCELLENT opportunity to swing trade by selling and buying back low. The halving run is a real thing and Bitcoin whales would want to suppress the price for months some time before the run to get a better price position in. And remember, if you swing traded correctly in 2019, that was like an extra 2x-4x on your portfolio.
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