DCA in the Wild West of Crypto: The Tale of the 2022 Bitcoin Bear Market (With Real Data!)

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Nice analysis man, should be more stuff like this on this sub imo. If I may though, there are some flaws you can improve on.

**1: Statistical Inconsistency:** You compare the %-loss on the investment (-58.24%) with the percentage loss in the price of BTC (-74.46%) which is misleading from a statistical point of view: The percentage loss in Bitcoin’s price is calculated from a single point in time, while the percentage loss on the investment is averaged over multiple points due to the DCA strategy.

**2: Survivorship bias & Time Horizon:** I get this is “back of the hand” analysis, but ideally you would perform this on all bearmarkets, not just 1 as the effectiveness of DCA depend heavily on market conditions, making it hard to generalize. The conclusion is also that *”you’re playing play the long-game”* but the data you tested only covers a short period (2021-2023).

I’m in financial analysis so I come from place of good intent 🙂 That being said there are modifications of DCA that deals with the shortcomings of regular DCA. Primarily Dynamic DCA, either based on risk, or if you can construct some other parameter to achieve the same result: [https://alphasquared.io/bitcoin-dca-calculator/](https://alphasquared.io/bitcoin-dca-calculator/)

Hoping for more posts like this on the sub instead of “will it go down more?”. Cheers.

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